Point Made’s Guide to your Rookie Draft
Before you draft, make sure to give yourself a little TLC: Timeline, Landing Spot, Capital
The NBA Draft is LESS THAN 24 hours away, but, before you draft, make sure to give yourself a little TLC and dive into it with a plan.
Timeline
Timeline refers to whether you are contending, tanking, or pivoting between the two, plays a HUGE rule in evaluating players for Fantasy Basketball. As a contender, especially in Salary Cap or Contract leagues, securing rookies who are ready to compete from day one is especially important. A day one contributor bolsters your title shot and maximizes your contending window.
On the other hand, if you are tanking or rebuilding, it’s important to look for ceiling raisers. Securing a steady day one contributor with a high-floor is valuable, but it won’t help you claw out of the lottery. As a tanker, it is easier to bet on upside or swing for the fences. Additionally, if your contention window is still a few years away, your timeline will allow you to take on high-risk, high-reward projects that others are less likely to bet on.
Prior to creating your big board, determining whether you are rebuilding, pivoting, or contending is incredibly important, as it plays a crucial role into how you should evaluate these prospects.
Landing Spot
In fantasy sports, a common trope is valuing talent over landing spot. While this especially pertains to fantasy football, it’s very much applicable to fantasy basketball as well. However, in fantasy basketball especially, landing spots can have a big effect on a players value, bothin the short- and long- term
For example, if a high-risk, high-reward projects lands on a team with good developmental history, I’d feel comfortable picking him over safer players within the same tier, especially if that team is rebuilding or has good risk tolerance. Similarly, if a player lands on a team where he will play a significant role from day one, it would positively impact his value and, thus, move him up my board.
On the other hand, landing spot can negatively impact a player’s value, too. In this year, the immensely talented Anthony Black, whom I had ranked 5th going into the draft, landed with the Orlando Magic, who already roster a plethora of guards and ball handlers. While I believe in Black’s long-term value, his landing spot will negatively impact his short-term value, unless the Magic move one of their guards.
Landing spot can immensely impact a player’s value, and it should play a big role in how you evaluate a player on draft day; however, if you find yourself struggling to decide between two players, it’s important to remember that landing spot only tells a fraction of the story.
Capital
Draft Capital alludes to how early a player is selected. Historically speaking, the earlier a player is selected, the more likely that players has been to succeed. The further down a draft board you go, the harder it becomes to secure a player who will play a meaningful role for your fantasy team. As a result, it’s easy to value players who are drafted earlier.
With draft capital also comes longer leashes. When a team heavily invests in a player, that player is given the leeway to make mistakes in order for them to grow and reach their potential. In a points league, this is incredibly important to consider, as the format doesn’t negatively impact ineffiency as in category leagues. Conversely, players who are drafted later are often relagated to smaller roles, barring massive improvements or surprising growth. A lack of a defined role on an NBA teams leads to a lack of fantasy value.
But, while draft capital is incredibly important, it’s not everything. Often times, for fantasy purposes, it’s important to remember that some players are better in real life than in fantasy sports. As a result, some players, such as various three point or defensive specialists, have big real world impact but miniscule fantasy value. Considering a player’s skillset is JUST as important as considering how early that player is drafted. Additionally, as shown by the reigning Finals MVP, a star can be round later in the draft, too, even if earlier picks are more historically successful.
This is not always the case, and draft capital sometimes leads to unfair expectations (I.e. Reed Sheppard), which is why landing spot, draft capital, and timeline need to ALL be considered simultaneously.