Fantasy Stock Market: Buying
Week 1 of the NBA season is complete — Whose stock are we buying?
Some NBA players start the season slow. This is normal and it happens every year. Some fantasy managers panic. This is also normal, but it seems to happen more quickly year in and year out.
Here at Point Made, we try to avoid overreacting. We stay calm, cool, and collected. We hold true to our pre-season research while still taking in all the new information coming our way.
You, as a fantasy basketball manager, should be calm, cool, and collected as well. Whether you panic or not, you’ve come to the right place.
Introducing: the Fantasy Stock Market. In the market this week, we’re buying. If you roster one of these players, be patient and hang tight. If you’d like to acquire one of these players, be realistic and send your fellow manager a reasonable offer.
Derrick White:
Derrick White is taking over 18 shots per game this season. He took 12 per-game last year en route to a top-40 9-category finish. If you haven’t tuned in to the Celtics this season, let me tell you one thing: those shots are not going away.
White is shooting only 32% from the field this year. His career average is 45%. Is there a chance that the career-average 45% mark goes down slightly this season due to all the extra shots? Sure, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest; but White’s current shooting splits are guaranteed to increase. Even if he shoots 43% from the floor, he’ll still be a second rounder while taking 18 shots per game.
There’s a good chance people aren’t selling Derrick White out of panic. Unlike a normal buy-low, White has started the season strong in 9-category rankings. He is currently #31 per-game — I just think he can be even better.
Amen Thompson:
Amen Thompson is a more traditional buy-low. He’s currently ranked outside the top-300 in 9-category rankings. You read that right. Outside the top-300! There honestly isn’t much analysis needed to describe Thompson’s start to the season (but I’ll do it anyway).
Amen is underperforming in each of the nine categories, particularly in rebounds, blocks, steals, and field-goal percentage. Compared to last season, the rebounding numbers are down four per-game, the steals and blocks are both down 0.8 per game, and his field-goal percentage is down 15 percent. All of these will normalize.
The low field goal percentage (40%) can be attributed to Thompson’s increase in 3-point attempts. He’s taken eight threes through two games this season after averaging just over one per-game last year. Out of those eight 3-pointers, Thompson has made zero. Either Thompson starts making some threes (which is a big boost to his fantasy value), or he moves away from the shot (which will lead to his field-goal percentage skyrocketing).
Amen has been playing on the ball much more this year on the back of Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury. Amen has been starting at point guard, although Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun are still handling tons of creation opportunities. Amen’s on-ball roll will likely bring up his assists compared to last year — another bonus.
Thompson is going to trend up while continuing to play a sizable role on a very good Rockets team. He has a lot of name value driven by tons of pre-season hype, and it’s always difficult to trade for a player with a high average draft position (ADP). It’s worth checking in on, though. Approach your friendly neighborhood Amen Thompson manager to see if you can turn a 4th rounder (via ADP) into a guy like Amen Thompson (who has second-round upside).
Dyson Daniels:
Dyson Daniels can be scary to roster at times. It can be fun, but also scary. Why is that? Because his fantasy value is floated so highly by a singular category: steals.
Daniels finished top-10 in 9-category totals rankings last season on the back of three steals per game. Through one week of this season, Daniels ranks number 182 in 9-category totals.
His steals are currently sitting at 1.7 per game. Those are going to increase. The steals aren’t the main reason Daniels is performing so poorly for fantasy managers, though; it’s actually due to a drastic dip in every other category. Points are down by eight, assists are down by two, and his shooting numbers are down by eight percent for field goals and nine percent for free throws compared to last season. He’s just in a slump.
Let’s get back to Daniels’ scary single-category steals value. If he doesn’t set more NBA records this season and that steals number drops to two per-game, Daniels will not be a first rounder again. However, he will still hit his fourth/fifth round ADP from this draft season. That’s all you need for a win.
Payton Pritchard:
Payton Pritchard is currently ranked as the 132nd per-game player in 9-category leagues. He’s outpacing last years’ numbers in points, rebounds, assists, field-goal attempts, and free-throw attempts. So what’s the problem? There’s just one answer: threes.
Pritchard’s seven threes per game to start this season are right on par with where he was last year. This year, he’s only making one of those seven threes per game while shooting less than 20% from deep. Last year, his 3-point percentage was 40%, which falls right in line with his career number. All the metrics are there for Peyton Pritchard to be a buy-low. As soon as he starts hitting more threes (which he will), the sky is the limit. He could be in store for a top-60 season.
Myles Turner:
The big theme of this article has been shooting slumps, and we saved the biggest slump for last in Myles Turner.
Let’s keep this simple. Myles Turner is shooting 34% from the floor this year. His career average is 50%. Sure — Turner’s shot profile may change a bit this season following an offseason move to the Bucks. That can’t explain a decrease of 16%, though.
Turner’s field goal percentage is going to rise in a big way, and when it does, so will Turner’s 9-category ranking. He currently ranks outside the top-120 per game but is an easy-lock for mid-round value, if not top-40 value.